Denmark’s military intelligence service has warned of a “low but growing risk” that Russia could carry out a limited military attack against one or more NATO countries bordering Russia, potentially within the coming months — while stressing that a full-scale war between Russia and NATO remains very unlikely.
The assessment was presented on Thursday by Denmark’s Defence Intelligence Service, known by its Danish initials FE, as it updated its assessment of the threat posed by Russia.
Thomas Ahrenkiel, head of the service, said one possible scenario could involve Russian forces moving into a limited area of a NATO country neighbouring Russia.
- Find more news from Poland on our Homepage .
Such an operation could involve a small number of troops, potentially without Russian military insignia, and Moscow could seek to justify it by claiming it was protecting an ethnic Russian minority.
Another scenario identified in reporting on the Danish assessment involves Russia using long-range weapons against infrastructure involved in supporting Ukraine.
The intelligence service assesses that a limited military attack would be a highly escalatory step but could potentially take place within the coming months. The risk is currently regarded as low, but increasing.
That is significantly different from an assessment that Russia is preparing an imminent full-scale invasion of NATO territory.
Ahrenkiel said the service still considered it “very unlikely” that Russia would conclude that it was in its interests to invade a NATO country, although the possibility could not be completely excluded.
Instead, Danish intelligence expects Moscow to continue increasing pressure below the threshold of a conventional Russia–NATO war.
The Danish Defence Intelligence Service describes Russia’s use of hybrid methods as encompassing political, informational, military and economic tools, including influence operations, threats, sabotage and destructive cyberattacks.
Its latest assessment expects Russia to intensify such activity against Western targets, including efforts to disrupt support reaching Ukraine.
The warning has particular relevance for NATO’s eastern flank.
The Danish assessment refers specifically to NATO states bordering Russia. That group includes Poland, which shares a border with Russia’s Kaliningrad region, as well as Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
It does not say that Russia has selected Poland — or any other individual NATO country — for an attack.
Poland nevertheless has an additional strategic role as one of the principal logistical routes through which Western military assistance reaches Ukraine.
The Danish warning also comes as European intelligence services increasingly focus on the possibility that Moscow could test NATO through actions deliberately designed to remain below the threshold of an obvious large-scale invasion.
FE has previously assessed that Russia is reorganising and expanding its military with a potential future conflict with NATO in mind.
Its 2025 intelligence risk assessment said Russia had undertaken its largest military reform since 2008 and increased the planned size of its armed forces from around one million to as many as 1.5 million personnel.
The service assessed that Moscow’s objective was to have conventional forces capable, at short notice, of winning a war against NATO in Russia’s western border regions and of operating against militarily weaker neighbouring states.
At the same time, the war in Ukraine continues to absorb a large share of Russian military resources.
FE assessed in 2025 that if the conflict ended or became frozen, Russia would be able to redirect substantial resources towards rebuilding and expanding forces intended for other contingencies.
The latest Danish warning therefore does not amount to intelligence that a Russian invasion of NATO has been scheduled.
Rather, it reflects an assessment that the possibility of a smaller and deliberately limited military operation intended to test the alliance is increasing, even while a full-scale Russian war against NATO remains very unlikely.
That distinction is particularly important for Poland and the Baltic region, where governments are simultaneously preparing for conventional military threats, sabotage, cyberattacks and other forms of Russian hybrid activity.
