The World Bank has raised its forecast for Poland’s economic growth in 2026 to 3.6%, a substantial upgrade from the 3.1% it expected in June, while warning that growth is likely to slow over the following two years as the boost from EU recovery funding fades and real wage growth moderates. The Bank now expects Polish GDP to expand by 2.9% in 2027 and 2.7% in 2028.
The new forecasts were published in the World Bank’s October Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, titled Making AI Work: Jobs, Firms, and Productivity. Poland stands out against a weaker regional backdrop: the Bank expects growth across developing Europe and Central Asia to slow to 2.2% this year from 2.6% in 2025.
Poland’s growth outlook also compares favourably with Europe’s largest economies. The European Commission’s spring forecast put Polish GDP growth at 3.5% in 2026, close to the World Bank’s newer 3.6% estimate, compared with 2.4% for Spain, 0.8% for France, 0.6% for Germany and 0.5% for Italy. The OECD’s latest forecast for the UK is 1.1%. Although the forecasts were published at different times, the gap is wide enough to show that Poland remains one of Europe’s faster-growing large economies.
- Find more news from Poland on our Homepage .
Poland is also outperforming most of its Central European neighbours. The Commission forecast 1.8% growth for both Czechia and Hungary, 0.8% for Slovakia and just 0.1% for Romania, while Lithuania was expected to grow by 3.0%. That puts Poland firmly in the upper tier of the region, with its 2026 expansion running at roughly three times the EU-wide pace forecast by the Commission.
A sizeable upgrade from June
The change is particularly notable because the World Bank’s June Global Economic Prospects report forecast Polish growth of 3.1% in 2026, 2.6% in 2027 and 2.9% in 2028. The latest update therefore raises the 2026 projection by 0.5 percentage points and the 2027 forecast by 0.3 points, while reducing the 2028 estimate by 0.2 points.
The wider October assessment suggests that economies in the region have proved more resilient to recent external shocks than feared. The World Bank says the impact of commodity-market disruption has been more limited than initially expected, while labour-market conditions, real wages and public investment have continued to support activity.
For Poland, investment remains an important part of that picture. Earlier World Bank analysis identified projects financed through the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility, high household savings and investment activity as buffers against weaker external conditions. Poland’s economy grew by 3.6% in 2025, with consumption remaining an important driver.
Growth expected to slow after the EU-funding peak
The stronger near-term outlook does not extend unchanged into 2027 and 2028.
According to the latest report, Poland’s growth rate is expected to fall from 3.6% this year to an average of around 2.8% across 2027–28. The World Bank links that moderation partly to the ending of disbursements associated with Poland’s National Recovery and Resilience Plan, known domestically as the KPO, as well as slower real wage growth weighing on household consumption.
The timing is important for businesses because 2026 represents a period of exceptionally strong EU-backed investment. The European Commission has likewise identified the final phase of Recovery and Resilience Facility spending as one of the principal factors supporting Polish investment this year.
That investment boost is expected to diminish sharply after the recovery programme reaches its spending deadline, leaving growth increasingly dependent on private investment, consumption, productivity gains and external demand.
How the World Bank forecast compares
The World Bank’s new 3.6% forecast for 2026 is now broadly in line with Poland’s own government assumptions.
The government’s medium-term macroeconomic framework adopted in April assumed real GDP growth of 3.6% in 2026. Its more recent 2027 budget proposal forecasts growth of 3.0% next year, slightly above the World Bank’s new 2.9% projection.
The European Commission’s Spring 2026 forecast was marginally more cautious, predicting Polish growth of 3.5% this year and 2.8% in 2027. The Commission also identified private consumption and high levels of EU-funded investment as the principal forces supporting growth in 2026.
The latest fully published IMF World Economic Outlook currently available is from April. It forecast Polish GDP growth of 3.3% in 2026, meaning the World Bank’s new projection is 0.3 percentage points higher. The IMF is due to publish its October World Economic Outlook on 13 October, providing the next major international comparison for Poland’s growth prospects.
The different projections were produced at different times and with different assumptions, particularly around energy prices, geopolitical developments and EU-fund absorption, so small gaps between them should not be treated as direct disagreements over a single set of conditions.
Poland stands out in a slower region
The World Bank’s upgrade is notable because the broader Europe and Central Asia outlook has weakened.
Higher energy prices, slower growth among major trading partners and pressure on manufacturing exports continue to weigh on the region. The Bank identifies further disruption to trade, continued war in Ukraine, higher energy and transport costs, tighter financing conditions and weaker growth among major partners as important downside risks.
Against that background, the World Bank specifically singled out Poland in Central Europe, where 3.6% growth puts it ahead of the weaker regional trend.
For Polish companies, the latest forecast points to two different phases: a relatively strong 2026 supported by investment and domestic demand, followed by a more moderate growth environment once exceptional EU recovery spending recedes.
The longer-term question will be how successfully Poland replaces that temporary investment impulse with private capital formation, productivity growth and stronger external demand — particularly as wage growth cools and the economy faces continuing demographic constraints.
