Independent candidate Łukasz Gibała appears set for a decisive victory in Kraków’s mayoral election, with two exit polls putting him more than 20 percentage points ahead of Monika Piątkowska, who is backed by Poland’s governing coalition. The result, if confirmed, would see an independent local candidate defeat the governing parties’ preferred contender in one of Poland’s most important cities.
Voting in the second round of Kraków’s snap mayoral election ended at 9pm local time on Sunday, 11 October, two weeks after Gibała topped the first round without winning an outright majority.
The first exit polls published immediately after voting closed both pointed to a comfortable victory for the founder of the Kraków dla Mieszkańców (Kraków for Residents) movement.
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Piątkowska, a senator supported by the Civic Coalition (KO) and Polish People’s Party (PSL), finished well behind in both surveys.
The figures remain provisional. The election result will only become official after the votes have been counted and the Municipal Electoral Commission completes its procedures.
Exit polls show a decisive lead for Gibała
The Ipsos exit poll, commissioned for Poland’s major television broadcasters, gave Gibała 61% of the vote against 39% for Piątkowska.
A separate survey conducted by the Ogólnopolska Grupa Badawcza (OGB) put Gibała even further ahead, with 64.1%, compared with 35.9% for his opponent.
Both sets of figures were published in WP’s election-night coverage.
| Candidate | Ipsos | OGB |
|---|---|---|
| Łukasz Gibała | 61% | 64.1% |
| Monika Piątkowska | 39% | 35.9% |
Turnout estimates differed slightly between the pollsters. Ipsos put participation at 44.7%, while OGB estimated 42.6%.
The official turnout in the first round, held on 27 September, was 43.5%.
Exit polls are based on surveys of people leaving polling stations and can differ from the final count. Nevertheless, the size of Gibała’s projected lead means both polls point to the same outcome.
Why Kraków is holding an early election
The election follows the removal of former mayor Aleksander Miszalski, a Civic Coalition politician, in a referendum held in May 2026.
The vote followed mounting opposition to his administration, with disputes over transport policy, parking, environmental restrictions and municipal finances among the issues raised by critics.
The referendum achieved the legally required turnout for recalling the mayor, forcing Miszalski from office before the end of his term.
The city has since been governed temporarily by Stanisław Kracik, who previously served as deputy mayor.
The Municipal Electoral Commission’s official election documentation confirms that the first round took place on 27 September and the runoff was scheduled for 11 October.
In the first round, Gibała received 36.38% of valid votes, while Piątkowska secured 29.91%.
That gave Gibała a lead of approximately 6.5 percentage points going into the runoff.
Sunday’s exit polls suggest that he extended that advantage significantly as voters whose preferred candidates had been eliminated made their second-round choices.
A political setback for Poland’s governing coalition
The projected result has significance beyond Kraków’s municipal government.
Piątkowska entered the contest with the support of KO and PSL, both members of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s national governing coalition.
Gibała, by contrast, contested the election through his local political movement rather than as the official candidate of one of the country’s main parliamentary parties.
A confirmed victory for him would represent a significant defeat for the governing coalition’s candidate, particularly because Kraków had already removed a KO-affiliated mayor just five months earlier.
However, the election should not automatically be interpreted as a national opinion poll.
Local controversies, the personal reputations of the candidates and Kraków’s recent political history all played a part in the contest.
The result also does not alter the composition of Poland’s national government.
For Kraków, the immediate consequences are more practical: the winner will take responsibility for a city facing decisions over transport, infrastructure, public spending and its relationship with the municipal council.
When will the official result be known?
The final outcome depends on the counting of votes from across Kraków’s polling districts.
According to the Polish Press Agency’s election-day reporting, 454 polling districts operated during Sunday’s vote.
Barbara Golanko, director of the National Electoral Office’s Kraków branch, explained that results would be made available online as counting progressed.
She also clarified that the formal result would be established and announced by Kraków’s Municipal Electoral Commission, rather than directly by the national electoral commission.
Until that process is complete, Gibała’s apparent victory remains an exit-poll projection.
For now, however, both major surveys suggest that Kraków is heading towards a decisive change in political leadership, with an independent candidate poised to take charge after months of local political upheaval.
