WARSAW, Poland — The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warned Tuesday that Russian and Belarusian intelligence services may be preparing to falsely attribute attacks on Polish critical infrastructure to Ukraine, according to analysis of recent statements by Belarusian officials.
The Washington-based think tank’s assessment, based on reporting from Polish broadcaster TVN24, highlights concerns that Moscow and Minsk could orchestrate a disinformation campaign to damage Ukraine’s reputation and strain relations between Warsaw and Kyiv.
Belarusian officials recently claimed they intercepted communications suggesting Ukrainian forces were planning attacks on Polish infrastructure, allegations Ukrainian and Polish authorities have dismissed as fabricated.
“This appears to be part of a broader Russian information operation designed to undermine Western support for Ukraine,” the ISW analysis noted, referencing the TVN24 analytical report.
Poland has been one of Ukraine’s strongest supporters since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022, providing military aid, hosting millions of refugees, and serving as a key logistics hub for Western assistance to Kyiv.
Experts warn that any successful disinformation campaign could complicate Poland’s domestic politics and potentially affect the unity of NATO allies supporting Ukraine.
The Polish government has not issued an official comment on the ISW warning, though security officials have previously stated they remain vigilant against hybrid threats from both Russia and Belarus.
Analysts say such false-flag operations would fit established patterns of Russian intelligence activities aimed at sowing discord among NATO members and weakening collective support for Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression.
